Thursday, May 31, 2007

Pulling Into the Driveway

As we come into December and settle down for the long winner, I'm back home after a trip to my in-laws with my wife for Thanksgiving in Dallas. It seems that so much has changed in the last month, and not for the better.

TIME magazine's cover was a simple one: "It's Over (?)". The cover photo was one of cars lined up at the gas pump with the subheading reading "Some say it was a price correction. Others say it was the end of an era. What do you think?"

Last week, I got to hear what others think. It was a large Thanksgiving dinner, with lots of being bossed around by my wife, my in-laws and anyone who had some opinion about what I should be doing. It was more of a contemplative time, and I simply sat back and listened to the conversations my wife's side of the family had before, during, and after Thanksgiving.

They talked about the new home in Dallas, about the hot, sometimes unbearable weather, about local politics, about the behavior of their neighbors, about what their hobbies and projects were, about who wasn't there, about tales of family history and whom couldn't get along with whom. What they didn't talk about were any major changes being made in their lives. If they were taking small, hesitant steps, they weren't sharing those steps with anyone. And if there was any perfect place to do it -- this being a time of giving thanks -- it wasn't being done.

The last six months have brought me to three sad, but inescapable conclusions.

1. Human beings are creatures of habit. They hate change. They will avoid change if possible.
2. If forced to change, they will change as little as they can get away with changing.

These two things are true whether the proposed change is good or bad. Even with a mass windfall of cash, they will try to preserve as much of their former life, friends, hobbies, etc. as possible.

There is sort of a "creeping back", an attempt to pretend that the events of 2007 just didn't happen. Never mind the hundreds of people killed in looting, rioting, starvation, homelessness, or just bizarre random acts of senseless violence caused during the most panicky stage. Never mind the assault on civil liberties. Never mind that a small sliver of our economy was sawed off and is floating out to sea. As far as America is concerned, it's still morning and all that icky stuff can just be forgotten.

I'm sort of reminded of the Roman Empire. How the Romans managed to keep the shape of the Roman Republic but lose its substance completely. The plaquards still read "SPQR", "to the Senate and People of Rome", when the Senate and the People had little power over the whims of the Executive. How even at the end of the Empire, when Christianity had sapped the willpower of the Empire (Gibbon), when the political structure had been sawed in half, when barbarians were invading the territories, when Britian had been told that it had to fend for itself, there were still people fighting over the meaningless title of Imperator as if it were actually worth something. On the outside, the Roman Empire looked fine, even though its art and culture had declined and what we were looking at was an empty shell at best.

So it shall be with peak oil. As another blogger said, the very concept of America is built around free cheap energy and the transportation across the vast spaces of the North American continent. We will keep as much as the "free cheap gas structure" shell forever but the reality will be very different. And not just in America. The shell of modern culture will remain; its substance will be much darker and different with all of the worries that privation brings.

When the day comes when we are no longer free, we will claim that all others are slaves.
When the day comes when we are out of money, we shall proclaim our wealth.
When the day comes when we our army is broken, we shall remain bellicose.
When the day comes when we no longer produce art or culture, we shall proclaim our cultural superiority.
When the machines stop running...then what happens?

(* * *)
So now what? Do we retreat into primitivism, anti-capitalism, a hatred of gas-powered technology for hatred's sake?

I hope not. What we do is simply this: "prepare for the worst, hope for the best." If you believe that peak oil is really a problem, then you should prepare for that problem while conditions are optimal and you're not worried about other things: like, say, survival. Learn how to conserve energy, using only the energy that you need. Learn what to do if access to cheap energy becomes a problem -- there are many things one can do, like growing one's own food. Use mass transit. Gently encourage others to do so -- but do not lecture them. They don't need your lectures, and they don't want them.

Why? Because there is a third inescapable conclusion:

3. No one likes a smart-ass.

(Remember Brainy Smurf? He always had the solutions, but the Smurfs would continually toss him ass-over-teakettle.)

Maybe there will be a wake-up. Humanity is a gem. Human beings have used their minds and their spirits to find solutions when all hope has been lost. They have resisted in situations where the smart and powerful have said resistance is futile. They have found solutions to problems that seemingly had no solutions. There might be a way ou of this, yet. (Hey, we might find a limitless supply of energy somewhere -- but don't put all your hopes there.)

Or, maybe there will not be a wake-up. Maybe the world will just go to sleep for a few centuries. But it might wake up again, later. In the meantime, learn to be clever, teach others, and learn how to survive. Carry the torch of knowledge on to the next generation.

As for now, I'm pulling this blog into the driveway and parking it. There's no more story to tell. Not for now. Maybe later. So I won't say "goodbye" but rather "au revoir" -- "until we meet again".

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Exhausted

This week has been very exhausting...it seems as if it's gone by in a very busy day! I'm just physically exhausted, so no blogging today. If anyone's reading this, I apologize for a "no post today". I think I've suffering my own oil shock....

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Big, Bad Gasoline

With the decrease in gas prices, I'm thinking about an incident that happened in the summer. My wife was driving her Honda and she said, "I'm going to have to take the Honda in for repairs."

"Why?" I asked. "What's wrong?"

"It's sputtering. I take it up a hill, and the engine starts to cough."

This was during one of the mini-shocks, and we really didn't want to spend the money. "Is the 'check engine light' on?"

"No," she said.

"Let's see if we can wait it out."

So about two weeks later, my wife said the problem disappeared. Coincidentally, it was when she put new gas in the tank -- and not from the same place. We figured that the gas had been watered, and there was a lot of gas watering going on.

(* * *)

Some explanation.

With no gas, and people reluctant to buy gas, there had to be a way for small gas station owners to make up the loss in revenue.

The easiest way to do that was to dilute the product. Sometimes, they would cut the gas with water. Sometimes, it would be cut with other additives. These gas pumps are supposed to be inspected by the state to make sure they actually have gasoline, and not marmalade in them, but...well...you know...money talks.

Is the water bad for your car? Yes. Your car wasn't designed to run on water. It definitely wasn't designed to run on sludgy additive. The reason some cars were abandoned in the Energy Crisis is because, frankly, the engines were ruined by bad gas and the owners didn't have the cash to pay for the overhaul.

With a little water, the car might "skip", like my wife's car; with a lot of water or a lot of gunk -- well, who knows?

My wife and I made a point. We wouldn't shop at that gas station again. We couldn't trust them.

(* * *)

According to the site "Congressional Mandates Contribute to Higher Gas Prices", the price of gas is determined by four factors:

"rack price" -- the wholesale price of gasoline. This makes up for 50 percent of price.

federal and state taxes -- depending on the state, this is about 14 percent.

refining cost and profit -- about 28 percent.

distribution and marketing -- about 7 percent.

People in the state of Georgia want the price to come down, and they figure the best way to bring it down is by calling for lower taxes on gas. They remember when Katrina hit, and price gougers were charging $5-6 a gallon. The governor temporarily stopped collecting state income taxes.

The current state taxes are 7.5 cents/gallon and a 4 percent sales tax. All together, this makes up four percent of the state's revenues -- gasoline. Three percent of that money goes into transportation related issues; the remaining one percent goes to the general fund.

These are among the lowest gas taxes in the country, if not the lowest.
So the state is resisting any lowering of the Georgia gas tax, but are being fought by conservatives who see this as an easy way of shrinking the Georgia government.

Conservatives, or course, have a great solution to the gas crunch: several, in fact.

* Open exploration in the Arctic. In particular, tap the Arctic Oil Reserve. It will just be "a few pipes -- what could it hurt?" "It's the tree-huggers that are making you suffer."

* Remove the air quality restrictions. In order to help air quality, gas has to have costly additives. Take away the additives, and that will lower gas prices -- with a resulting drop in air quality.

* Remove "burdensome restrictions" on gas production. The buzz word is "deregulate". "Gas production needs to be deregulated!" That's the Word of the Day crossing every conservative politican's lips. "Deregulation". A chicken in every pot and a full gas tank.

When the primaries come, it's going to be very, very interesting -- how the blame game is going to work.

(* * *)

Interestingly, our property values have gone up. They've gone up because we're ITP : "inside the perimeter", the perimeter being I-285, which encircles Atlanta. The reason the prices are going up is because the commuters are thinking of moving back in to Atlanta.

Funny, I thought the reason they moved out of Atlanta was because of the "good schools" in suburbia -- schools which were suspiciously absent of black people. Now, the schools suddenly got better in Atlanta. As my late Dad would say, "Well, I'll be."

Meanwhile, homebuilders are taking a massive hit. Prices are dropping for McMansions in Rural Georgia. If you're willing to make a one hour drive into Atlanta every day and a two hour drive out, prices are a steal. I bet someone will make out big.

(* * *)

As I was driving home, I took a peek at the gas station that sold my wife that bad gas. It was a run-down looking place to begin with, and there was that yellow tape surrounding the missing pumps. The place was empty, the numbers were off the signs. It was a casualty. People have long memories, it seems.

Monday, May 28, 2007

The Five Stages of Gas Prices

Food prices came down this week in Atlanta. Normally, I don't know the price of nuthin'. If you were to ask me the price of a gallon of milk, I'd have no idea. My wife, however, pulled the Honda Element up to the driveway and said, "come and help me unload"!

Normally, the trunk of the car is full, but this time, the trunk and the back seat were full. It looked like she had bought two months of groceries. "Those prices have been better than a long time, and I figured that we needed to stock up on absolutely everything." So now, the kitchen is overflowing with food -- "strike while the iron is hot" my wife says.

My wife's employers are now starting to require employees to come in twice a week instead of once a week. I'm still permitted to "telecommute", but people seem to be returning back to work, which reminds me of what lead_tag said: after a half-year of Energy Crisis, people have "compensated" and are going right back to their old habits.

He was quite right. Americans will pay $5.50-plus a gallon for gasoline if they absolutely have to. Here's one take on what has happened:

1. Gas prices go up. This isn't the kind of upward creep seen by inflation, rather, this is a "shock" in actuarial terms.
2. Every industry for which the cost of gasoline is the biggest budgetary factor gets hit the hardest. Farming, trucking, fishing, the airline industry all take big hits and prices soar.
3. My wife says that "most people in this country are two paychecks away from being homeless". Some people are about 1/4 of a paycheck away. Everyone living "on the margins" gets squeezed out. People do become homeless, in some cases. People lose jobs.
4. People who aren't wiped out by the shock adjust their budgets to pay $5.50-plus a gallon. Everyone else who was wiped out tries to stand up again.
5. Life returns back to normal.

I agree with this take. This take, however, was found on a right-wing political board. And frankly, I can't find anything wrong with it, except maybe for #5, since we have no guarantee that gas prices will keep falling. However, the price has fallen for the fifth straight week. The last time gas was this low was in June.

Conservatives are already crowing that we've seen "the end of the crisis". "Just a bunch of hippies riled up over nothing -- suck it, libs," was a comment I saw on Fark. Despite the spike in unemployment, despite the increase in homelessness, despite the protests in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, people want to act as if, frankly, nothing ever happened.

I'll tell you something -- I used to be a nurse. Yep, a nurse, one of those people who take your temperature and pass you the bedpan. I don't like to bring it up, since I got out of that career when it became too stressful. I got to see a lot of people die, and a lot of other people in bad situations, and it made me a believer in Elisabeth Kubler-Ross. I'm a hard core believer. You've heard of the five states of grief, right?

1. Denial: "It can't be happening!"
2. Anger: "How dare you do this to me?"
3. Bargaining: "Just let things be the way they were a little longer!"
4. Depression: "I'm so sad, why do anything?"
5. Acceptance: "I know that things can be better, but they will be different."

These stages can be applied to just about any personal loss. They don't always happen in this order, and people move back and forth between them, but I've seen them happen. Hell, there are people in this country still in the "anger" stage that black and women have civil rights!

For the last seven months, most of us have been in the "denial" stage. I've been thinking that "prices are going to come down sometime" for the last seven months. A few people -- people generally who are early adapters -- got a chance to hit the "anger" stage, where you saw all that chaos. But now, things are starting to settle down. We haven't hit the "Mad Max" stage just yet, which is good as there's an election around the corner.

Even liberals are pretty much still in denial. I keep reading about how this spike in prices was a "scheme".

The idea being that Texas doesn't have much of an oil industry anymore. (Remember the comic figure of the Texas oilman? Remember "Dallas"?) It's not that the oil in Texas has dried up, or anything. Rather, the oil is so hard to get that before the "shock", the amount of money you got for drilling for oil didn't offset the high price of pulling it out of the ground, not with the price of a barrel of oil what it was. Now, with oil prices almost double what they were in April, it has now become worthwile to start drilling. This has made some people in Texas very, very happy, as they have been paid big bucks to squeeze that harder-to-get oil out of the ground. Whether anyone sees any of that oil doesn't matter now -- they've been paid to look for it, and that's all that matters.

Myself -- I don't believe it. That's too much of a "conspiracy", and the problem with grandiose conspiracies like that is they don't work because that many people can't keep their mouths shut. But even among people formerly sympathetic to the need to change our wasteful lifestyles, there's a reversion to "let's wait till tomorrow".

(* * *)

My wife suggested that maybe we should take in a border. We have a guest room. Furthermore, I have contacts at Georgia State University. We could house one of the many Chinese graduate students that come to GSU.

My response? "Let's wait and see. We'll only do that if gasoline hits $7 a gallon."

Sunday, May 27, 2007

The Atlanta Protests

Back in Atlanta. The house was okay when we got back, and the weather was a cool 52 degrees. It reminds me that winter will soon be around the corner. It's jacket-wearing weather right now.

What I missed was the huge protest in downtown Atlanta. (There was a similar protest in Phoenix.) No fewer than 50,000 Atlanteans gathered to protest the lack of action by the Atlanta City Government regarding the Energy Crisis. However, it wasn't one's usual protest.

First, there wasn't the atmosphere of "one guy on a soapbox with a megaphone". The point of the protests was not to be grim and determined, but to provide a community atmosphere, and a pleasant shared experience between people with the same goals. Someone described it as "a cross between a state fair and a protest", with very few chants, marches, or whatever for the first part of the protest. Of course, people showed off their electric cars, brought canned preserves, held improptu knowledge-sharing sessions, but no one needed to be hectored about the lack of fuel. Everyone already knew there was a lack of fuel; the point was for people to have a good time.

Second, the area at Centennial Olympic Park was rigidly controlled by the organizers themselves. Access to the central planning camp was controlled by old Vietnam and Iraq veterans who had established walkie-talkies and checkpoints with the Atlanta police looking on. The organizers had no plan of losing control of the area to young anarchists or anyone who cared to co-opt the point of the convention for whatever their pet cause happened to be.

Indeed, control was shockingly ruthless. One young woman who quickly moved from a speech about the lack of oil from the Middle East to the plight of the suffering in Palestine had her mike quickly cut off and was scooted off the podium. There was loud booing from the attendees, and one of the organizers came up to the mike. "This is about fighting one war at a time, people. This isn't the 'cause of the week'. We're not meeting today to solve every problem in the world -- just one of them." (Indeed, many radical groups held a counter-protest of the protest, angry that their speakers wouldn't be allowed on the agenda.)

Third, what few speakers there were were chosen for the age: nearly all of them were eighteen or under, and all talked about the way their lives had been changed since the Energy Crisis. The call was for the adults in the world to help solve this problem, at least in the City of Atlanta, by providing workable solutions.

Many of the teenage speakers called for more money to be diverted to the "Beltline", a project where abandoned train track encircling Atlanta would be taken over by the mass-transit MARTA system to expand mass-transit service to the periphery of Atlanta. Many MARTA workers attended the strike, and the union looked on the participation of those workers favorably. "At last, someone in Atlanta finally gets it."

The kids were actually quite wise as to how much of an uphill battle it would be. "I think the first time we do this," said one young man, wearing a suit, "they'll say we were crazy. The next time we meet, we'll all be ignored by the media. The third time we meet, they'll call us "dangerous" and there will be call for the cops to break us us. But by the fourth time -- we'll win!

(* * *)

The amazing part was the fourth part. This was probably the first Mass Internet Protest.

The organizers had circumvented going to the major media and radio stations to get publicity for the protest. Instead, they went to independent newspapers, posters, leaflets, and organizing the college and high school communities. Kids told their parents, who then joined with their kids.

A new website was created that provided an "alternative media". However, it wasn't your usual, "here is the issue/here are the salient facts/let's protest" website. Rather, the website's goal was to act as a major newsite, like CNN's newsite or the CBS newsite. "We want people to bookmark this site first. That means we have to provide content other than the kind of content we're protesting about. About sports, and entertainment. Lots of people think those issues aren't important, but the goal is to preach to the world, and not just to the converted." And there were a lot of people get news about sports, TV, the weather, local news, all at the website -- which faced several legal challenges from "legitimate" news providers claiming that their material had been "poached".

Furthermore -- the protest was not seeking the help of the television media. The founders turned down TV interviews. They turned down radio interviews, sticking to the Internet and local speeches at universities. Of course, there were plenty of people who talked about the protests, but the media seemed annoyed that they were being shut out of the process.

One founder put it this way at a speech at Georgia State University: "Screw the media! We know what happened during the Iraq War protests. We were ignored. When we weren't ignored, they would find the least representative protestors and focus on them, or they would find a small handful of counter-protestors and treat the situation as if they had numbers similar to ours! The media doesn't own the world. The media doesn't think for us, and frankly, we've stopped thinking about them."

All in all, the website was a success. Although it faces legal challenges, its user-contributed news might make it a powerful player in its own right in Atlanta's future.

(* * *)

Around 7 pm, however, the protestors suddenly began to wander over from Centennial Olympic Park to the CNN Center. "They don't listen!" shouted the protestors. "Make them hear us!" "Take over CNN! Let's have a sit-in!" someone shouted, and the crowd massed across the park, crossing Marietta Street and making their way towards CNN.

At that point, the riot police went into action, forming a line across Marietta Street and gathering up any stragglers that had made it to CNN Center before they had. The protestors shouted and screamed at the riot police, who remained impassive.

Aside from some debris thrown and the occasional swinging of the billy club, there was no true "riot" and the police more or less remained unmobilized. By about 10 pm, the protestors simply began to disperse, and by midnight it was all over. ("Of course", said one of the organizers, "the hard part will be to get people to come back again.")

(* * *)

My wife had great news. One of my wife's sales customers (he works for a duck-related insurance company) who lives in Columbus has offered to sell us...a pig! A dead pig, of course. It will be fed, slaughtered, and packaged, and we have to help pay for the expenses.

It's a lot of money, but it will keep us in meat all winter! Meat! What a luxury! We immediately went shopping for a freezer for the basement to use to store our gains. They say "it takes money to make money", but I guess the actual phrase was "it takes money to make meat". We're out about four figures and we haven't seen a strip of bacon yet. I figured we'd better buy now before it became impossible to buy later.

(* * *)

Of course, there had to be bad news: San Francisco won Games 6 and 7 of the World Series for their first World Championship ever in the Bay City. Barroids hit a couple of home runs, kissed the World Championship trophy, and immediately retired -- so something good came out of it all, at least.

But if the players go on strike, what am I going to do for sports? Although one person talked about electric car racing.....

Saturday, May 26, 2007

No Man is an Island

It's odd that I happened to miss the Atlanta protests, where people finally got off their hindquarters and made their will known to the politicians. This week, my wife and I were on our one week cruise to the Caribbean, so I'll have some comments about the protests next week.

Getting to our boat required a long drive from Atlanta to Fort Lauderdale. Thank goodness the price of gas took a dip to under $6. On the political boards, there are still some naysayers who say "there's no energy crisis -- prices will fall down to their earlier levels! Look! Gas is under $6 for the first time in three months!"

What these people don't realize is that the summer driving season is over. Gas prices generally fall this time of year and I don't think we will see $3 gas for some time to come -- if ever again.

Pump access is still touch and go. It's at least easier to find out which stations have no gas because you'll see a big sign that says "NO GAS TODAY"! Access is better but those stations are deserted when they can't sell gas. The food inside is at such a high markup that there's no "convenience" to be had by doing one's shopping and gasoline purchasing in the same place.

It affected my wife and I on our trip into Florida. The middle part of Florida isn't very well habited, and with our gas gauge going down below the 1/8 mark, we pulled into some town which was big enough to have both "gas" and "fast food" signs on the exit sign. We get there, however, and both gas stations are closed!

So we hit the road. And we look for another exit. And we look. And we look! It's about 20 miles to the next town and the "empty" light is staring at us. I'm starting to freak out, muttering, "boy, I hope we can get gas" and my wife is saying, "don't panic". Finally, after what seemed forever, the next town had gas -- it was at $6.20 a pop, but we were glad to have it.

As we pulled out, I was aware that there were simply fewer cars on the road. I imagined what it would be like to be stuck out in the middle of the Everglades, out of gas, and waiting for some car to stop and give you a lift. Sometimes, I felt as if we were the only people on the Interstate in Florida.

(* * *)

We finally made it to Fort Lauderdale and embarked on our cruise ship. The reviews said that the ship was generally full of older people, very few kids, and very quiet -- which was exactly what we wanted.

Our itinerary of stops included Half Moon Cay (sort of a private island), San Juan, St. Thomas and Nassau. As we sat on board, we noticed that there were fewer people than expected. The ship was about 3/4 full, and we noticed it in the dining areas.

Most of the wait staff was from the Philippines and Indonesia. They would stand around, waiting to be needed. It was clearly slow on board. We asked one of the pursers what he thought was going on.

"Some of our passengers cancelled their reservations. They were too sick to travel, or they just couldn't afford getting to the ship before she sailed."

Dining room service was "four to a table". We talked to some other older couple, with an animated older man in a red shirt leading the discussion. He was a Florida retiree, and an ex-New Yorker.

"There was another couple that was supposed to go with us. They bailed out. His wife got sick and his kid's out of work, so he moved back in. They'd been putting off going to the doc due to the fact that bills were tight. It was one of those chest infections, but it turned into pneumonia. Now, she's in the hospital and their whole trip is scuttled."

We talked about the Energy Crisis. It was really all anyone could talk about. The man went on:

"These politicians, you see -- they ain't going to do nothing. They don't know what to do about it, and if they did know what to do about it, no one would want it done. People ain't going to give up on the idea that they can go everywhere they want, drive everywhere they want, do anything they please real easily."

"I don't know," my wife said, "you think the riots would convince some people."

"As long as it don't affect them directly, people ain't convinced. Rich man runs this country. One of my buddies in New York, a stockbroker, was calling this a 'price correction'. I said, 'Look, this price correction is gonna correct this country right into a casket if someone don't do something.'"

My dad continued. "People these days -- they're getting angrier. More ticked off, killing each other over stupid stuff. You heard about that oil refinery engineer that was killed in a bar in Texas. He died in an argumentover the price of gas! You take people's gas away from them and there's gonna be some trouble."

We talked about the current President, the war in Iraq and the administration. "I think it's going to be really bad for the politicans. The country is so split up, blue state-red state that there's no one party to blame. And people blame their politicians first when life goes bad."

"They'll find someone to blame," said the guy. "Me, I'm worried about getting a Hitler."

(* * *)

After the beautiful Half Moon Cay, our first port of stop was San Juan, Puerto Rico.

However, the cruise company gathered all of us to the auditorium the night before. Rather than see some musical numbers, everyone on board was given information about the current state of affairs in Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico is very dependent on imported oil and the economy hadn't been doing well before the Crisis. The government, trying to save money, rolled back government salaries about 15-20 percent. Unemployment in Puerto Rico was in the double digits, and the GNP had gone into "negative growth" for at least the second straight quarter. Puerto Rico was undergoing stagflation and a recession.

People had taken to stealing water and electricity, and the government had taken on riotous crowds, dispersing them with tear gas and rubber bullets. The word bandied about by the ship's officers was "explosive". In short, we could get off at San Juan if we wanted to: but if we didn't get back on board on time, the ship was definitely leaving without us -- and if something really bad happened, they'd leave sooner. The cruise line absolved itself of any responsibility if we disembarked.

From what I heard, only a few people got off the boat. What it was like for those people, I have no idea. We stayed on board.

(* * *)

The next stop was St. Thomas, of the Virgin Islands. At least, St. Thomas wasn't "explosive". It was a free trade port that made most of its money through tourism.

For years, St. Thomas had been subsidizing the price of gasoline. In effect, the goverment of the Virgin Islands lost money for every gallon of gasoline sold. Now, they had decided to cut their losses: they would still subsidize the cost, but only to a certain limit. As a result, gas prices began to go up on St. Thomas.

Furthermore, for a long time the poorer residents of St. Thomas had been stealing electrical service -- tapping off the main lines, so to speak. The government, reversing its policy of looking the other way, was now arresting people for stealing from the grid. The Islands had to save money, and they had to get rid of the freeloaders. There had been several violent altercations between islanders and police, but these were on the individual level. The people of the islands were angry, but there were no mobs or rioters.

I already knew from places like TravelGoogle that we should stay near the shoreline. St. Thomas had a drug problem, and you really didn't want to go more than two streets inland if you could avoid it. The further inland you went, the more likely you were to bump into drug addicts.

While my wife and I were walking along the shoreline, we were approached by three men, islanders, who asked us if we had any spare change. They looked pretty ragged. We said no and begged off -- and these guys must have followed us a mile down the shore. I don't know what their problem was -- they didn't ask for more money. But it was very scary. Silently, my wife and I walked all the way back to the cruise ship with these guys hot on our tails, only turning back when we reached the dock.

(* * *)

My wife and I debated as to whether or not we really wanted to get off the boat at all in Bermuda. However, the ship's crew encouraged us. "Bermuda is the best place. If you can, you have to get off at Bermuda, even if you get off nowhere else."

So we did -- and we didn't regret it. Bermuda was really an island paradise. We enjoyed the beaches, the restaurants, and the bar scene. I got the chance to purchase some authentic "Bermuda shorts" and felt like a real islander after I put them on.

My wife wanted a margarita, so we stopped at an open beach bar. We met an older gentleman with a British accent who struck up a conversation with us. "I think I'm getting desperate to speak to another tourist," he said.

Despite the peaceful, calm atmosphere of Bermuda, the bars and shops seemed virtually deserted. The gentleman explained why.

"It's not you Yanks who make the economy of the Caribbean turn -- it's European visitors, and European visitors have dropped to virtually nothing. The islands are going to take a tumble. Bermuda is among the most prosperous of the islands -- it's British, you know -- so the effects will be felt here last."

He then told us a story that we found really disturbing. He stated that there used to be private fishing charters, but they had dropped off precipitously. With the tourist economy collapsing and with gasoline prices soaring, with the rise of unemployment throughout the Caribbean, the islanders were turning to an old financial standby.

"Piracy", he said. "A year ago, you could get on a luxury boat, with a crew of about two or three. Rich gentlemen from Europe and America, out to go fishing. Can't do that anymore. There are pirate boats out here, waiting to attack such a vessel, board and rob the passengers -- sometimes, worse."

"Can't the government do anything about it?"

"They're trying. But I fear that piracy will become a way of life out here. The pirates will become more bold, and seek larger targets. Now, the British Navy or the US Navy could clean out pirates in a jiffy, but they're a bit busy right now halfway around the world."

He continued. "I predict that in a year from now...if things remain the same...many of the island governments will go bankrupt. You think the UK cares that much about Bermuda? They care about themselves, first. Same for the US and its island possessions. The islands are just going to have to be left to fend for themselves until everything can be made right again."

I told him that we knew this was the last major trip we would make in a long time (except for Thanksgiving). He said, "Well...enjoy it while you can. It was a great run while it lasted."

(* * *)

And the Angels lead the Giants 3-2 in the World Series. I'm praying for an Angels win.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Latter-Day Sainthood

I got some news on the homefront -- my plan for perpetual peanut butter with peanuts grown in my backyard is scuttled. My wife doesn't like peanuts. Instead, it's going to be the traditional backyard garden -- tomatoes, zucchini, lettuce, watermelon, herbs and peppers. Ruth says this is the kind of stuff that grows "fast and in abundance". Not that I know the difference between a garden ho and the ho that walks the streets. I guess I'll have a "fast learning curve".

Believe it or not, other the next week, my wife and I will be on a cruise. I know what you're thinking -- "what a shameful waste of energy!" However, we paid for the cruise over six months ago, before the crisis even hit. My wife and I talked about it...we know there will be no more vacations in a long time for either one of us. The two trips we've paid for are this cruise, and for a Thanksgiving flight to Dallas. After that...probably nothing. Frankly, I'm a bit edgy about leaving the house unguarded, but we'll have some neighbors looking over the ol' homestead.

One of the commenters talked about how people in her area are creating little mini-shuttles, where people in the neighborhood can travel en masse to the city. Oddly enough, I'm understanding that in major cities like New York (and Atlanta), smart individuals are sort of creating an "ad hoc carpool" -- "here's where will be going today, join in!"

And these Good Samaritans are getting flack for it! From taxi drivers, of all people! "You're taking money out of our mouths!" is the call for hack drivers everywhere, and they want the police to get these people off the roads, by God! The Atlanta government has reminded people that in order to run a "livery service" you need to pay for insurance and a medallion. What they haven't done is enforce the law, which has been a relief to just about everyone.

Last night, Georgia Public Broadcasting reran one of their American Experience documentaries about The Mormons. It was a two-parter, where they discussed the history of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints and the state of the Church today. It was done before the Oil Crisis, but it discussed the warehouses that the Mormon Church operates.

From what I understand, some Bible verse has been used by the Church to justify the storing of food, water, clothing, generators, etc. etc. in giant warehouses all over Utah and Idaho. As a matter of fact, when Katrina hit, the Mormons were the first ones in New Orleans, breaking out the bounty and sharing it with the suffering in New Orleans. Supposedly, when some kind of end-of-world level financial crisis, they'll break out the goods and hand them out to Church members so that the Church can survive.

Oddly enough, this has resulted in a surge of interest in joining the Mormon faith. I suppose that this rush to religion is motivated by entirely material reasons. As for what's going on in Utah right now, I haven't been following very closely. The Church is certainly not going to give in to any pressure to share the wealth with non-members. Whether or not gangs of Mad Max raiders are driving a burned-out bus to Utah for a wave of looting and rapine, only to be met by a squadron of blond-haired, blue-eyed 24-year old Elders all armed to the teeth is a scenario to be feared in the near future is beyond rational prediction. Right now, I haven't become desperate enough to join a Church for those reasons, or even any reasons.

My wife says we have a heat pump and we can make it through the winter. It doesn't snow in Atlanta. Me, I'm not so sure. The future can't be predicted. I'll take one last cruise and then return to whatever reality faces me here.

By the way: Angels and Giants in the Series. Series is tied at 1-1.